"IT COULD have been a multiple Lockerbie." Those were the words of writer on Middle East current affairs and Bournemouth University's head of journalism David Bradshaw.

Although first indications suggest a home-grown terrorist plot, an international connection cannot be ruled out, he said.

"Having learned that most, if not all, of the people who have been arrested are British-born, one's first reaction is that it's a repeat of the July 7 terrorist attacks in London, on what seems to be a much bigger scale, almost a 9/11 scale."

He said opinion polls had showed almost a quarter of British Muslims, and an even greater proportion of young British Muslims, felt the London bombings last summer were justified, pointing to a widespread sense of alienation and radicalisation among a significant number.

"Most of those wouldn't dream of carrying out a terrorist attack, but within the group there are small numbers who would and are clearly very dangerous to the rest of us."

The timing could be partly linked to the fact that airports are so busy at this time of year.

There is also a probable link to the UK's involvement in recent geo-political events, Britain's failure to rein in Israel or condemn its invasion of Lebanon and our increased presence in Afghanistan.

A link to Al Qaeda cannot be ruled out, he added.

Al Qaeda, led by Osama bin Laden, has threatened to carry out a similar attack against the UK as was carried out against the US in September 2001.

And following recent events, a "struggle for supremacy" is bubbling.

"Another reason why they are keen to have a terrorist attack of global significance attached to their name is that Al Qaeda are a radical Sunni Muslim organisation who were seen as being the global leaders of militant Islam in the war against the West. They have been rather overshadowed recently by the rise of Hezbollah in Lebanon dominating the world's headlines. Hezbollah are Shi'ite Muslim, with very close links to Iran who are mortal enemies of Al Qaeda."

Whoever was behind the attacks, the results would have been devastating.

"I'm not an explosives expert but I know you can create a very powerful explosion by mixing two chemicals together. That requires human intervention - the liquids left by themselves wouldn't explode the aeroplane.

"It does increase our apprehension and even fear of travelling.

"I notice airline shares have gone down in the stock market.

"But nevertheless we have to look at the probabilities.

"It's desperately sad for the small number of people killed in terrorist attacks, but when you think of the number of killed or injured compared to the number who travel, the real risk is still very low indeed. I think we have just got to hang on to that."

It is not yet clear when the attacks were planned, but it would have been a very different day in the UK and across the Atlantic if the plot had not been foiled.

"One has to have great sympathy for the police and security services who are heavily criticised if they make a mistake and arrest the wrong people. But they cannot take the risk sometimes of not acting, even if they are not 100 per cent sure. It's incredibly difficult for them."